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Economic forecasting

Want to know which way Fed policy is headed? This quarterly report offers hints

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Mar 14, 2023
The Summary of Economic Projections lays out what Fed leaders are thinking.
People wanting to understand the Fed's thinking may want to turn to the body's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections report.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
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For those who sell, predicting the economy is more than theoretical

by Sabri Ben-Achour
Feb 21, 2023
Manufacturers and retailers have to decide what to make or stock now based on where they think the economy will be later.
Retailers will often mark down prices to move inventory. But suppliers will sometimes share in the loss by giving retailers a credit.
Carlos Jasso/AFP via Getty Images
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Economists are predicting a recession. Does that really mean we'll have one?

by Kai Ryssdal and Andie Corban
Jan 30, 2023
We take a look inside the world of economic forecasting and ask whether predictions are reliable.
Economists at Wells Fargo and JPMorgan expect a recession this year but describe it as "modest" and "mild."
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Global economic growth will be almost cut in half this year — or will it?

by Nancy Marshall-Genzer
Apr 19, 2022
The IMF forecasts a slowdown in growth from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022. But the pandemic and the war could change its outlook.
The uncertainties of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war make it especially difficult to predict future economic conditions. Above, inside the New York Stock Exchange.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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What will inflation look like one year from now?

by Lily Jamali
Dec 9, 2021
Inflation is the highest it's been since the Reagan years — and still climbing. If it's this high now, what what will December 2022 will be like?
Economists think inflation is likely to persist in 2022. To what extent? That's harder to say. Above, traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 8.
Spencer Platt via Getty Images
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When economic predictions are wrong

by Marielle Segarra
Jul 22, 2021
When we tell you about economic news, we’re always saying things like "numbers were higher (or lower) than expected." How much, then, should we consider economists’ expectations?
A once-in-a-lifetime pandemic has thrown a wrench in economic forecasting, economists say.
Spencer Platt via Getty Images
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